Gold Forecast 2026: How high will the price go?

In 2025, Gold experienced one of the most brilliant chapters in its financial history, recording an annual growth of over 60%, a figure not seen since 1979. This exceptional rally was fueled by a mix of dollar devaluation, strategic central bank purchases, and an unprecedented rush to safe-haven assets.

Do the 2026 gold forecasts confirm this trend, or are we nearing a correction? In this article, we will analyze gold price forecasts for the coming months, based on data from analysts at major global institutions such as Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan.

To understand the 2026 gold market forecasts, it is essential to analyze the factors that have shaken the sector over the last year. After an uncertain start at the end of 2024, 2025 marked a historic turning point: in October, the gold price broke through the $4,000 per ounce barrier for the first time.

This surge was triggered by several factors such as:

• US trade policies: the aggressiveness of the new US administration generated uncertainty, causing the XAU/USD pair to gain 20% in the first quarter alone.

• Institutional purchases: central banks preferred gold over US Treasuries, viewing the yellow metal as a more stable store of value.

• Safe-haven assets: geopolitical tensions prompted both retail investors and large funds to overweight gold in their portfolios, outperforming major stock indices.

In summary, gold proved to be the strongest commodity compared to other energy assets. 

Gold’s performance this year will be shaped by a delicate balance between physical demand, financial investments, and monetary policy decisions.

According to HSBC analysts, central banks will continue to be net buyers of gold, especially in emerging economies like China. Simultaneously, JP Morgan estimates that gold ETFs will see inflows of approximately 250 tons in 2026, while demand for physical gold bars and coins will remain above 1,200 tons.

If you are considering adding ETFs to your portfolio, check out our guide to the best 2026 ETFs.

Historically, gold benefits from interest rate cut cycles. If the Fed maintains a dovish stance to support the economy, the dollar could weaken further. A weak dollar and falling government bond yields make gold prices more accessible to international buyers, fueling the rally.

Furthermore, new chapters could emerge from the world of cryptocurrencies.

It is no longer just a matter of short-term speculation. Experts are noting a structural trend: from Chinese insurance companies to large portfolios linked to the crypto world, gold is being chosen as a stabilizer against extreme volatility.

Long-term forecasts reflect widespread optimism, albeit with different nuances among various analysts.

• JP Morgan forecasts an average annual price of $4,753, with peaks that could reach $5,055 in the final quarter of 2026. Growth could continue up to $5,400 in 2027.
• Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish outlook, indicating a target of $4,900 by the end of 2026, citing monetary easing as the primary catalyst.
• Bank of America (BofA) has raised its estimates to $5,000 per ounce, highlighting how rising debt and US fiscal deficits make gold an essential asset.
• Morgan Stanley is targeting a price of $4,800 as early as the first months of 2026, emphasizing how gold functions as a barometer for global geopolitical risk.

Although the primary trend remains bullish, HSBC analysts warn that we could witness a wide trading range, fluctuating between $3,950 and $5,050.

The estimated price for the year-end is around $4,450. This slowdown compared to mid-year peaks could be caused by so-called “demand destruction”: when prices become too high, the jewelry sector (which accounts for 40% of total consumption) tends to contract, acting as a natural brake on the price rally.

HSBC’s positive outlook is not limited to gold: the bank has also revised upward its estimates for related metals, bringing the silver target to $68.25 per ounce. For those looking for less expensive alternatives with high potential, it is useful to understand how to invest in silver to capitalize on this bullish phase for the sector.